认为 - 澳门金沙城中心赌场

Is there a better COVID-19 test method for the UK?

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在30秒内

  • research into COVID-19 testing by LBS Professor kamalini ramdas and her co-authors Lord Ara Darzi at Imperial and Dr. Sanjay Jain at Oxford could be ‘game changer’ for effective “test, track and trace” system in UK
  • 教授ramdas会谈 拉杰什尚迪,学术主任 Wheeler Institute for Business and Development 由于部分 Wheeler Institute’s COVID-19 series
  • Professor Ramdas says, if the approach is successful, the UK could use it to contain spread of the virus and provide a safe route to getting the economy back on track as soon as possible.
 

 

Could quantity of tests rather than quality prove to be the elusive answer to limiting the transmission of COVID-19 and offering the only safe route out of lockdown?

流感大流行加剧的全球性的获得所需要的所有谁需要它们的人测试次数的挑战。但一直全世界广为人知的缺乏准确的测试。英国政府已经承诺,到六月“震撼世界的”跟踪和追踪”系统将到位,以遏制covid-19作为锁定升降机进一步蔓延。

But without an effective testing strategy, this is not likely to be possible.

目前,在“黄金标准” covid-19测试是RT-PCR(反转录 - 聚合酶链反应)试验,其中从鼻子截取的拭子送到实验室进行处理。这是一个高度敏感的试验,是不太可能提供假阴性,但它也是工艺极其昂贵。此外,他们还需要很长时间才能处理。

同时,要便宜很多“点护理”测试是快,但不太准确。这些通常测试抗体,人体响应于冠状病毒感染产生。卫生系统有问题,因为他们买了这些测试的数量巨大,但不得不把它们搁置,因为他们不够准确,提供了假阴性结果的时间通常为30%。

但如果这些便宜的测试,已经由独立实验室在数量庞大的开发,结合​​使用时增加检测到病毒的几率有多大?换句话说,如果什么 - 而不是开发和推广单一的测试,有效地测试了covid-19 - 多个独立的测试组合使用对同一人时,可能是同样有效?

'The combination of these independent tests could provide the accuracy levels of a gold-standard'

covid-19测试的未来?

研究认为我与同事,医生主ARA darzi在伦敦帝国学院和经济学家桑杰博士在耆那教牛津大学进行提供公共卫生官员一个机会,利用测试不通过给予多个独立制造测试满足必要的精度门槛,具有独立的结果,对每个单独的,减少错误的结果的机会。

出版于 自然医学 in May, our research highlights that:

  • Multiple, cheap and quick tests could meet the ‘gold-standard’ accuracy by combining tests produced by different labs, and which use different methods to detect the virus;
  • Pooling blood samples could also speed up the rate at which populations could be tested, with optimisation models identifying how many samples to pool;
  • Experimentation is required by those who are familiar with testing in a lab and at point of care to see if the approach works;
  • In order to be successful, governments and healthcare systems will have to work together and share results.

已经有抗体不在正在取得世界各地特别准确迅速发展的测试。这些测试被独立开发的,经常使用不同的工艺或靶向不同的蛋白质的检测。因此,理论上你可以给病人多次测试,如果测试是独立的,得到一个不正确结果的机会可以成倍增加,这意味着假阴性的可能性显着下降。

The combination of these independent tests could provide the accuracy levels of a gold-standard test.

‘Amazon could even collect data on the test results through its platform’

许多测试都在按独立企业民营实验室正在开发中。在短期内,我们的目标应该是为他们开发多个独立测试,然后可以混合和匹配,以创建一个黄金标准方法。如果测试是不精确的,在快速连续两次给予的患者也可能得到不同的结果。在这种情况下,重复同样的试验两次也可以提高精度。 

一个完全不同的智能测试策略是集中个别样品。使用这种方法,20个血样可以从不同的人采取并创建一个集中的样品。如果组合为阴性,这是一个很好的考验,那么每个人都清楚。如果它返回一个积极的结果,则该组被反复分裂,使用标准的优化方法,直到找到谁是积极的人。这个过程已经被试用,在德国医院。

非常有益,有已经被发现在日内瓦(创新新的诊断基础)收集的测试结果的全球数据库。这个数据库包括由每个试验中使用的靶抗体和检测过程的细节。通过包括每个测试的准确度,精密度和检测试剂盒的成本,它可以作为一个起点,产生建议关于这种制度可能是不同的国家更有效。

如果亚马逊是卖的测试,它可以建议购买者买测试的组合作为一个整体,提高了测试效率。亚马逊通过其平台上的测试结果甚至可以收集数据。该信息随后可以与公共卫生部门共享,以确定哪些人已经过测试,并重新测试,并发现自己是积极的。

如果这被证明是有效的,在英国的成功推出,我们可以用这个方法来控制病毒,提供了一个安全的路线进行锁定,并让我们的轨道上枯萎的经济恢复尽快。此外,它可能是一个改变游戏规则的制定不具有的资源基金或支付的高精度测试的国家。

Where countries have a severe constraint of a lack of time and a lack of resources, buying multiple, cheaper tests and combining them to increase accuracy, could be the answer to reduce transmissions and offer a more certain route into a post-pandemic future.

Similarly, a pooled approach could help health authorities in developing countries test large numbers of individuals and identify where the positive tests are located without using as many resources as when testing everyone separately.

kamalini ramdas is Professor of 管理科学与运营 and Deloitte Chair in 革新 and 创业 at 澳门金沙城中心赌场.

拉杰什尚迪 是学术主任 Wheeler Institute for Business and Development. He holds the Tony and Maureen Wheeler Chair in 创业 and is a Professor and Area Chair in the 营销 Subject Area at 伦敦 Business School. He also serves as Academic Director of the 市场驱动战略 高管教育 programme at 澳门金沙城中心赌场. COVID-19 poses specific challenges for developing countries.

The Wheeler Institute is committed to surfacing expert insights into what those are, and the opportunities to overcome them. 在这里让我们的最新观点.

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